Increased Shale Gas Production Will Supply Bulk of U.S. LNG Export Demand, EIA Concludes

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Increased natural gas production is projected to satisfy 60% to 80% of a potential increase in demand for added liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Lower 48 states, according to recently released EIA report.

The report, Effect of Increased Levels of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports on U.S. Energy Market, considered the long-term effects of several LNG export scenarios specified by the Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy.

In the export scenarios that EIA was asked to analyze, LNG exports from the Lower 48 states start in 2015 and increase at a rate of 2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per day per year, ultimately reaching 12, 16 or 20 Bcf/d. EIA also included a 20-Bcf/d export scenario (Alt 20-Bcf/d) with a delayed ramp-up to identify the effect of higher LNG exports implemented at a more credible pace.

added-LNG-export-scenarios

LNG exports from the Lower 48 states in the baselines have projected 2040 levels ranging from 3.3 Bcf/d (LOGR case) to 14.0 Bcf/d (HOGR case). Estimated price and market responses to each pairing of a specified export scenario and a baseline will reflect the additional amount of LNG exports needed to reach the targeted export level starting from that baseline.

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